Big bag, a small cushion (2)

Monique Jérôme-Forget was furious yesterday. She did not like the Journal calls into question the soundness of forecasts of private investment in Quebec that the Ministry of Finance used to build its own forecasts for economic growth in Quebec. We understand the anger of the Minister of Finance by reading the first page of the Journal that the projected growth of its recent economic statement were probably far too optimistic compared to reality and they certainly can not be realized. A number of investment projects of private companies that have been taken into account in growth next year and subsequent years are still at the stage of projects. Some of these potential investments, including increased refining capacity of the plant in Saint-Romuald Ultramar, have been canceled outright to be postponed to a later date. Others, such as estimates of investment of $ 750 million over five years Provigo, have simply not been confirmed by the management of Loblaw, which owns the Quebec grocery chain. If it is hoped that the majority of the 16 billion dollars of private investment will be achieved one day, we know today that the global economy makes more uncertain in the short term. As I mentioned recently in this column, the schedule of investments planned by the multinational Rio Tinto Alcan in the Saguenay / Lac-Saint-Jean are the subject of a major overhaul. All the major players are such aluminum, because of the collapse of prices and the weakening global demand. Forecasts and elections It is already not easy to predict how the situation will evolve in times of normal economic growth, then imagine how it becomes risky when located in a period of slowdown and we decided to call an election. In this context, the normal reflex of the finance minister was present on November 4, a balance of public finances as positive as possible. Its economic statement was tinged with too much optimism overflowing. And it's not for nothing that my column the day after this statement was "Grosse bag, small pillow." Ms. Jérôme-Forget was beautiful ring generous reserves of 2.3 billion, they were clearly insufficient to face the "economic storm" apprehended by its leader Jean Charest. v The election campaigns are not the time for talking so enlightened, they are in times of economic trouble. Remember the recent federal campaign. Until the evening of the vote, Oct. 14, Stephen Harper has always refused to admit that Canada could face an economic slowdown. "Canada is immune," have ceased to proclaim the Conservatives. Stephen Harper has been, last week, the first head of government of Canada in a decade to raise the possibility that the country returns with a budget deficit. Sunday, his finance minister, Jim Flaherty, pushed even further the end of denial by admitting that Canada could eventually also be a victim of the recession in the next year. The optimism has limits usually found a few days after an electoral verdict.